Taiwan, the prize in the Sino-American competition

The United States and China are squaring off over Taiwan. The beautiful island is the biggest point of friction between the two powers, a prize worth going to war for. At the centre of the first island chain that runs from Okinawa down to Vietnam, Taiwan is a natural barrier that prevents Beijing from reaching the open sea. Inhabited by a population that (in the majority) opposes annexation by the People's Republic, it is the centre of the stranglehold Washington has devised against its enemy.

If communist China wants to transcend itself and reach the Pacific Ocean it has to take Taiwan back, by fair means or foul, not least to obliterate the existence of an alternative China, the nationalist one. If the United States intends to prevent its rival from arriving a few miles from Hawaii it has to keep its informal control over Taipei, not least to signal to its Asian clientes its willingness to fight for the cause. Reasons that, in these latitudes, could make the competition for planetary supremacy white-hot.

Although popular wisdom has it one step away from ruling the world, China struggles to dominate its coastal seas, through which 90% of the goods it exports pass. In front of it stands a group of islands and archipelagos that physically hem it into its space, because they are disputed or in the hands of other states.

The most important is Taiwan. Originally inhabited by Austronesians and colonised long ago by Han from the mainland, the island took on its present shape in 1949, when Chiang Kai-shek and the Chinese nationalists took refuge there after being defeated by Mao's communists. Despite its cultural origins, in recent decades it has developed an identity distinct from the People's Republic, so that today the population tends to oppose unification. More than that. It is a protectorate of the United States, intent on keeping alive a different China, a thorn in the side of the motherland.

This condition has made it a coveted goal, especially for Beijing. According to President Xi Jinping's statements, the People's Republic would like to recover the island by 2049, the centenary of the Maoist revolution. Ideally through economic seduction or by imposing a fait accompli. Beijing's tactical objective is not to attack militarily so much as to convince the Taiwanese that it is impossible to resist the mainland giant, so as to begin a negotiation leading to the annexation of the territory. But if that persuasion did not work, the communist leadership would be ready to act militarily.

And here the situation gets complicated. Because Washington is strongly opposed to leaving the field open to communist China. The United States cannot accept losing the first obstacle in front of its challenger, nor signalling to its Asian partners any reluctance to defend its own hegemony.

If Beijing landed in Taipei, Washington would certainly have to react, accepting going to war for Formosa (the old name given to the island by the Portuguese), with the possibility of triggering a nuclear escalation. In effect, refusing to fire would mean accepting China's rise and the balkanisation of American-style globalisation. That is, the end of an absolute supremacy, suddenly shared with its main antagonist.

Motives and scenarios that make Taiwan the most dangerous island in the world, the first front of the competition between the United States and China, which is bound to grow rougher in the coming years. Fatally centred on control of the Chinese seas and access to the Pacific Ocean. Until it turns into war.

Dario Fabbri

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