A thirst for nationalism: causes and consequences of the unrest in Kazakhstan

January's protests in Kazakhstan have further inflamed Russia's near abroad, set alight the corridor of the new Silk Roads and heightened tensions that spill over into Europe. Though they seemed to take place a world away from our latitudes, they are proving to have a direct impact on our industrial and personal circumstances, through the price of energy and the possible role Rome would like to play in the negotiations between Moscow and Washington

The unrest broke out in early January in the western provinces of Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia. Both immediate and strategic causes lit the fuse. In the first hours it was the rise in fuel prices that brought people onto the streets, demanding government action to ease the burden. Then calls grew for a change in the ruling class, voiced both in the capital Nur-Sultan (formerly Astana) and in the largest city, Almaty.

At that point the protesters demanded that every strategic tie with Russia be cut and that the country leave the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Moscow-centred military structure that includes six former Soviet republics. And here lies the heart of the matter. Of Turkic and Mongol origin, the Kazakh population has grown markedly in recent decades while the number of Russian inhabitants has fallen considerably. At the end of the Cold War almost 40% of residents were Russian speakers; today just 19% are, while 67% describe themselves as native Kazakhs. In recent years these demographic changes have fired up nationalism, advancing the Kazakh cause. That is why the rioters pressed for closer ties with the Turkic world, with Ankara itself, and only partly with the West. In effect, the proclaimed desire to end Russian colonialism in the country is the underrated key to these events.

Caught off guard while engaged on its western front, the Kremlin intervened militarily to put down the crisis, formally at the head of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. It's hard to establish the number of dead and injured with any certainty. For now the violence seems to have been quelled, but for Russia it could prove a Pyrrhic victory.

Not only because it forces Russia to deal with its western and eastern near abroad at the same time, just as it wants to negotiate with Washington an easing of the containment directed against it. The use of force in Kazakh affairs will inevitably increase resentment towards Moscow, already rooted for some decades in a large part of the population.

So the crisis also threatens to overwhelm the passage through the country of the so-called new Silk Roads, a Chinese-style counter-globalisation project. In short: a future resurgence of anti-government and anti-Russian anger could sweep away Beijing's plans.

Finally, events in Kazakhstan have further hardened Russia's position on energy. Moscow refuses to increase production because of the tensions close to its borders, despite the soaring bills that have hit Europe and our country. Partly also to strengthen its negotiating power with the United States, showing itself resolute in Ukraine as in Kazakhstan. This makes the mediating role the Italian government has assigned itself all but impossible. And it leaves the cost of energy unchanged for consumers and companies in our country. The deeper meaning of events that seem distant but prove to be very close.

Dario Fabbri

PS: to read analyses like these every month, subscribe to Luxury, the Italian monthly devoted to Business, Companies, Society and Lifestyle.

Click the link:

www.luxuryrivista.com